My predictions on the pending Supreme Court rulings this morning on gay marriage: The Court upholds both the California constitutional ban (which isn’t so much a ban as it does not prohibit civil unions, just referring to them as “marriage”) and the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA).
Of the two laws, DOMA is the one more constitutionally suspect, but the challenge to it attacks the wrong part of the law and has a weak case. This case is brought by a New York lesbian widow whose partner died in 2009 and she had to pay the Death Tax on the inheritance. The problem is, New York did not enact gay marriage until 2011, so right there this case should fail on standing alone (in fact, the Court could take this route and not even rule on the merits of the case.)
Had the challenge to DOMA been brought against the provision allowing states not to recognize gay marriages performed in other states, then DOMA would have to fail under the Constitution’s Full Faith and Credit clause that compels states to respect the “public acts, records, and judicial proceedings of every other state.”
My solution? Enact the Flat Tax and eliminate the Death Tax and issues like the one behind the DOMA challenge go away for everyone.