Another Day, Another Poll Showing VA Gov. Race Is A Dead Heat

Hot on the heels of yesterday’s QPac poll showing Ken Cuccinelli and Terry McAuliffe within the margin of error (McAuliffe +3), a new Roanoke College poll has been released showing the race is even tighter with McAuliffe holding just a single-point lead, 37% to 36%.  As the month of September has progressed, the spread between the two candidates has shrunk considerably.

Poll Date Sample McAuliffe (D) Cuccinelli (R) Spread
RCP Average 9/3 – 9/16 42.2 38.0 McAuliffe +4.2
Roanoke College* 9/9 – 9/15 874 LV 37 36 McAuliffe +1
Quinnipiac* 9/9 – 9/15 1005 LV 44 41 McAuliffe +3
Harper (R)* 9/15 – 9/16 779 LV 42 37 McAuliffe +5
Purple Strategies 9/6 – 9/10 800 LV 43 38 McAuliffe +5
Rasmussen Reports 9/3 – 9/4 998 LV 45 38 McAuliffe +7

In fact, if you only look at the polls completed in just the past week, the 4.2% average lead for McAuliffe drops to 3%.  This comes AFTER McAuliffe wasted $8 million advertising during the month of August to try and paint Cuccinelli as a wacko extremist.

The recent spate of stories in the Washington Post and elsewhere are reinforcing the public perception that Cuccinelli is a serious, trustworthy and competent policy wonk while McAuliffe has an almost total disregard for the details and is by and large just winging it.  In fact, the Post ran ANOTHER such story today:

The speeches [at the Richmond forum on education and the conomy] themselves fed into the narrative that emerged from the TechPAC flap: that McAuliffe is breezy while Cuccinelli grasps the details and gravity of the job. Both candidates had 45 minutes to address the group. Cuccinelli gave a 39- minute address heavy on wonky details. McAuliffe gave his standard 16-minute stump speech.

It seems that the more people (and even the media) pay attention, the more they realize that Cuccinelli has a firm grasp of the issues and would serve as a good steward of the Commonwealth while McAuliffe, by contrast, is a loose cannon on a rolling deck.


7 thoughts on “Another Day, Another Poll Showing VA Gov. Race Is A Dead Heat

  1. On 10-31-12, Roanoke College poll showed Obama trailing Romney by 5 points in Va. , and Kaine losing by 5 points to Allen. Ranked one of the worst polls in the country. If Cuccinelli can’t even win in this poll, he must really be behind.

    1. But look at how Roanoke College does on gubernatorial elections…

      Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

      1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)
      2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)
      3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)
      3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)
      5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)
      6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)
      7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)
      8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)
      9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)
      10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)
      11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)

  2. Well, the only thing I will say is that the poll you cite is from October 31st, 2012. This poll is from September 19th, 2013. Plenty of time for anything to happen. Like C making a comeback or McA self-destructing (or the other way around). It is clear that a pattern is developing in the polls that shows that C has momentum at the moment and McA is slipping.

  3. You guys all thought Romney was going to win too. The disconnect from reality, led by the Tea Party, is what’s going to be the end of the Republican party.

  4. Herb et al – You do realize off year elections traditionally have flipped turnout to federal, right? So to poll using last year’s numbers as a basis is wrong out the gate. TEST

  5. I very much doubt turnout this year will be D+5. But we’ll see. Again, the GOP base has EVERY SINGLE REASON TO COME OUT EN MASS, so I hope they do.

Comments are closed.