Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Senate Democratic Policy Committee Chair / former DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-NY) couldn’t stop crowing back in 2006 and 2008 about the number of senate seats Democrats were going to pick up from Republicans because GOP incumbent senators were polling below the magic 50 percent threshold and would go on to lose their races.
Well, guess what…
In the latest Quinnipiac University poll on the Virginia senate race, incumbent Senator Mark Warner is polling at . . . 46%. Even his favorable rating is now below 50% at 49%. For someone the media tries to hype as being a household name (despite nearly 20% of people in the poll saying they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion) and so popular, they should do their homework on this. In fact, since Nov. 2012, Mark Warner’s favorability rating has dropped 9 points from 58% to the aforementioned 49% while his unfavorables have gone up from 20% to 30%.
Warner has been barely flirting with the 50% mark for several months now with only one poll showing him clearly above it. However, this latest poll is the largest sample so far with nearly 1,300 responses from registered voters (a sample pool that tends to oversample Democrats, particularly in off-year elections.)
I will remind people once again that in 2006 George Allen led Jim Webb by similar margins. (And I will remind people once again that despite the “macaca” gaffe by Allen in mid-August, he consistently led Webb in all but four polls until late October.)
For once Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer and I are in agreement – Mark Warner is going to lose in November.