Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer Predict Mark Warner Will Lose

Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Senate Democratic Policy Committee Chair / former DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-NY) couldn’t stop crowing back in 2006 and 2008 about the number of senate seats Democrats were going to pick up from Republicans because GOP incumbent senators were polling below the magic 50 percent threshold and would go on to lose their races.

Well, guess what…

In the latest Quinnipiac University poll on the Virginia senate race, incumbent Senator Mark Warner is polling at . . . 46%. Even his favorable rating is now below 50% at 49%. For someone the media tries to hype as being a household name (despite nearly 20% of people in the poll saying they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion) and so popular, they should do their homework on this. In fact, since Nov. 2012, Mark Warner’s favorability rating has dropped 9 points from 58% to the aforementioned 49% while his unfavorables have gone up from 20% to 30%.

Warner has been barely flirting with the 50% mark for several months now with only one poll showing him clearly above it. However, this latest poll is the largest sample so far with nearly 1,300 responses from registered voters (a sample pool that tends to oversample Democrats, particularly in off-year elections.)

I will remind people once again that in 2006 George Allen led Jim Webb by similar margins. (And I will remind people once again that despite the “macaca” gaffe by Allen in mid-August, he consistently led Webb  in all but four polls until late October.)

For once Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer and I are in agreement – Mark Warner is going to lose in November.


21 thoughts on “Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer Predict Mark Warner Will Lose

    1. Jim…….i have been reading headlines for 67 years starting wth the Buffalo Evening News and have never, ever read a headline as provacative as this. The last time i read something so provocative as this was “Dewey Beats Truman”……….but that was an honest mistake………Yours is NOT honest!!! retraction would be appropriate, and with that, i would forgive you!!!

  1. Frankly, there are a lot of strong GOP candidates this year and a lot of outstanding women are running this for both the House and the Senate. Barbara Comstock, Mia Love, Jodi Ernst, Terri Lynn Land, Karen Handel, Shelly Moore Capito, just to name a few.

    1. I see nothing wrong with the headline. Schumer did predict Warner will loose. You just have to listen for the dog whistle.

    2. I do not believe Schumer would say such a thing about Warner today. if you are hypothecating something that Schumer said regarding polls several years ago…to today……that simply isnt true!! amen……

  2. It’s not unlike the episode of The Simpsons where Bart is running for class president and Homer makes him a campaign sign that says “SEX!!! Now that I have your attention, vote for Bart Simpson.”

    1. I was part of a campaign in Albany incumbent Frank Cox was almost ousted by Atty. George Harder…………….now, what was the campaign referred to in the papers???

  3. You need to go to Iowaa in an obscure campaign to make your point!!! Warner isnt known for sticking his foot in his mouth!!

  4. Ken, it’s a US Senate race for an open seat. If you want to call that obscure, then so be it. My point is that gaffes happen and nothing can be taken for granted, certainly not 8 months out.

  5. Add to that the Special Election in FL-13 for a marginal seat that the Democrats were supposed to win and didn’t. Again, time will tell in the end, but so far, things aren’t shaping up to be particularly good for the Democrats.

  6. Riley: “Headlines are meant to be provacative (sic) in order to get people to read them.”

    False. They’re meant to summarize the article and be factual. You’ve just admitted to trolling.

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