A new poll puts GOP nominee Barbara Comstock up +16% over Democrat John “Hey, ladies, you’ve never had a real job” Foust in the contest to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Frank Wolf in Virginia’s 10th congressional district.
The truly amazing thing about this poll is that the sample gave Democrats a 2% edge in turnout and consisted of an electorate that voted for Obama by 3% despite the district being carried by Romney. What does that tell us? That Comstock’s numbers are likely higher than even that 16% advantage tells us.
Based on the Comstock-Foust poll, at this point I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if two other Republican campaigns — those of Gillespie and Scholte — overperform in Northern Virginia and sneak up to claim upset wins. As we have pointed out here before, in 2006 Jim Webb did not claim a lead in any post-Labor Day poll over George Allen until a poll that was completed on Oct. 23. The number of polls conducted in this year’s senate race (18 since Nov. 2013) has been paltry in comparison to ’06 (41 between Dec. 2005 and Election Day 2006) and in fact no polls have been released in the past two weeks since news of the #BRIBESTORM FBI investigation of Mark Warner broke.