Real Clear Politics Downgrades Mark Warner’s Chances for Reelection

Yesterday, we brought you news that Real Clear Politics said to keep your eyes on the Virginia senate race as one that may blindside pundits and pollsters on election night.  Today, we get further confirmation of such movement towards Ed Gillespie as RCP downgrades Mark Warner’s chances of holding the seat for Democrats from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat.

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The Christopher Newport University poll has show Gillespie closing fast on Warner, going from 20 points down to 12 and now 7 in their latest poll. If you thought Dave Brat upsetting Eric Cantor in the primary was huge, this would be just as big. Furthermore, if Warner does go down or at the very least underperforms and doesn’t break 50%, you could see an upset in the 11th District with Suzanne Scholte defeating Gerry Connolly who has run a campaign just as lackluster and devoid of purpose as Warner’s has been.

UPDATE: Throwing even more gasoline on the fire, the only poll that showed Dave Brat with a chance of defeating Eric Cantor in the primary, Vox Populi, has this as a 4-point race, 44% Warner-40% Gillespie-5% Sarvis. This poll has a sample of 34% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 35% independents with an Obama approval/disapproval rating of 44%/56%.