PWC-Loudoun Split Politically For First Time In Modern Era

I noticed something very interesting in last week’s election results. For the first time in at least 20 years, Prince William County and Loudoun County split in how they voted for the top of the ticket. While Ed Gillespie narrowly carried Loudoun County by about 0.5%, Mark Warner carried PWC by almost 3%. I have reviewed the top of the ticket for every statewide race in Virginia going all the way back to 1996 and this is the first instance of this occurring. As our friend “The Derecho” pointed out last week in his post-election summary, the approval of several high density developments in Prince William County by the Republican-dominated Board of Supervisors has ironically led the county to becoming more Democratic in its leanings. As he wrote:

It would be ironic however if the greatest source of campaign funds to several of our GOP Supervisors ultimately led to the loss of their seats as their districts become more dense and more blue.

I have been sounding the warning on this for years (and most recently predicted this outcome in June of this year.) I fear that we may have reached the tipping point now with this year’s election as PWC and Loudoun split. It doesn’t take rocket science to figure this out. Cities and the inner suburbs of many cities tend to vote Democratic. Just look at any map from the past 100 years or so. Why any political body controlled by Republicans would advance land use planning and other policies that would lead to their own political defeat is simply baffling. However, that is exactly what has been taking place in PWC for the past 15 years and has accelerated over the past five or so. More apartments, more townhouses, more condos only bring more Democratic voters.

For a review of the past several statewide elections that were at the top of the ticket and how PWC and Loudoun voted, see below. Given the trendlines, I would not be surprised to find this split becoming permanent.

2014:

Locality – LOUDOUN COUNTY
Candidate Votes Percent
Ed W. Gillespie Republican 45,500 49.08%
Mark R. Warner Democrat 45,042 48.59%

Locality – PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
Candidate Votes Percent
Ed W. Gillespie Republican 45,366 47.49%
Mark R. Warner Democrat 48,140 50.39%

2013:

LOUDOUN COUNTY
Candidate Votes Percent
DEM Party Terry R. McAuliffe 44,369 49.55%
REP Party Ken T. Cuccinelli II 40,464 45.19%

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
Candidate Votes Percent
DEM Party Terry R. McAuliffe 50,441 51.94%
REP Party Ken T. Cuccinelli II 42,431 43.69%

2012:

COUNTY/CITY CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%
LOUDOUN COUNTY
Mitt Romney 75,292 47.03%
Barack Obama 82,479 51.53%

COUNTY/CITY CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
Mitt Romney 74,458 41.32%
Barack Obama 103,331 57.34%

2009:

COUNTY/CITY CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%
LOUDOUN COUNTY
Robert F. “Bob” McDonnell 39,996 61.04%
R. Creigh Deeds 25,430 38.81%

COUNTY/CITY CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
Robert F. “Bob” McDonnell 43,993 58.70%
R. Creigh Deeds 30,847 41.16%

2008:

COUNTY/CITY CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%
LOUDOUN COUNTY
Barack Obama and Joe Biden 74,845 53.66%
John McCain and Sarah Palin 63,336 45.41%

COUNTY/CITY CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE%
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
Barack Obama and Joe Biden 93,435 57.51%
John McCain and Sarah Palin 67,621 41.62%

2006:
LOUDOUN COUNTY
Candidates Party Vote Totals: Percentage
J H Webb Jr Democratic 40,381 50.07%
G F Allen Republican 39,249 48.67%

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
Candidates Party Vote Totals: Percentage
J H Webb Jr Democratic 44,503 50.51%
G F Allen Republican 42,409 48.13%

2005:

LOUDOUN COUNTY
Candidates Party Vote Totals: Percentage
T M Kaine Democratic 31,074 51.64%
J W Kilgore Republican 27,539 45.76%

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
Candidates Party Vote Totals: Percentage
T M Kaine Democratic 33,364 49.95%
J W Kilgore Republican 32,178 48.17%

2004:

LOUDOUN COUNTY
Candidates Party Vote Totals: Percentage
Bush/Cheney Republican 60,382 55.69%
Kerry/Edwards Democratic 47,271 43.60%

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
Candidates Party Vote Totals: Percentage
Bush/Cheney Republican 69,776 52.84%
Kerry/Edwards Democratic 61,271 46.40%

2002:

LOUDOUN COUNTY
Candidates Party Vote Totals: Percentage
J W Warner Republican 40,196 82.67%
N B Spannaus Independent 4,490 9.23%
J G Hornberger Independent 3,530 7.26%

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
Candidates Party Vote Totals: Percentage
J W Warner Republican 43,375 81.44%
N B Spannaus Independent 5,660 10.63%
J G Hornberger Independent 4,186 7.86%

2001:

LOUDOUN COUNTY
M L Earley (R) 53.44% 24,372
M R Warner (D) 45.84% 20,907

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
M L Earley (R) 52.35% 30,543
M R Warner (D) 46.79% 27,297

2000:

LOUDOUN COUNTY
Candidates Party Vote Totals: Percentage
Bush/Cheney Republican 42,453 56.12%
Gore/Lieberman Democrat 30,938 40.89%

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
Candidates Party Vote Totals: Percentage
Bush/Cheney Republican 52,788 52.52%
Gore/Lieberman Democrat 44,745 44.52%

1997:

LOUDOUN COUNTY
D S BEYER JR (D) 13,697
J S GILMORE III (R) 20,997

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
D S BEYER JR (D) 18,110
J S GILMORE III (R) 32,049

1996:

LOUDOUN COUNTY
CLINTON/GORE (D) 19,942
DOLE/KEMP (R) 25,715

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
CLINTON/GORE (D) 33,462
DOLE/KEMP (R) 39,292


2 thoughts on “PWC-Loudoun Split Politically For First Time In Modern Era

  1. Great analysis. It makes one wonder how the vote to extend the ‘Metro’ into Loudoun by a Republican dominated BOS will effect the number of Republicans on the BOS 20-years from now?

Comments are closed.