Rumors have been circulating that Amanda Chase may have competition in her challenge to Steve Martin for the 11th Senate District. Chesterfield businessman Barry Moore has been said to be considering a run for the seat and a pseudo-confirmation briefly arose when Moore posted the following message on his Facebook page:
The post was quickly removed from Moore’s Facebook account, which was probably a wise choice considering the message was not especially conservative, or coherent for that matter. While “change” is often a rallying cry to challengers to incumbents, any good conservative should could cringe at bringing about such change through “planned progressive actions.” While it is doubtful that Moore actually intended to label himself as a progressive, it is nearly impossible to discern any actual substance in the announcement posting, other than an avowed passion for something called “conscious change.”
Regardless of the quality of the non-announcement, any third candidate in a nomination fight against a sitting incumbent would likely be fatal to both challengers. Virginia law states that the incumbent may choose the method of nomination for elections to the General Assembly, and Steve Martin will surely choose a primary, where the highest vote-getter wins without run-offs. As we’ve discussed before, Martin may be vulnerable to a strong primary challenge. However, if rival challengers the dissenting vote against a long-term incumbent, Martin would be nearly certain to win such a three-way challenge. If Moore is serious about wanting “conscious change” for the 11th District, he might want to consider things carefully before starting a three-way nomination contest.