29th State Senate District
2013: Cuccinelli 39% / McAuliffe 57% / Sarvis 4%
2012: Romney 35% / Obama 63%
VV calculation: D+9; Safe Dem
The 2011 redistricting really did a number on this district; where McDonnell carried the old district with 55% (it was basically a tossup district, a bellweather for the state), Mitt Romney managed only 35% here- in a year where he got 48% statewide. This district is now a safe D seat.
Prince William: 74.7%
Manassas Park: 6.1%
The population center of this district is now the Woodbridge area along Rt. 1, as well as the heavily-Hispanic Manassas area. The Woodbridge area is strong Democrat, the Manassas area swings.
Chuck Colgan (D) is not running for re-election. He had $40,500 in his campaign account per the last VPAP filing.
Rumored or declared Democrat candidates
Jeremy McPike (http://potomaclocal.com/2014/12/02/mcpike-makes-run-virginia-senate/) will contest for the Democrat nod, after nearly knocking off Republican Delegate Scott Lingamfelter.
Del. Michael Futrell (D-2nd): Giving up his Delegate seat to run for State Senate. He has $10.939 in his Delegate campaign account (https://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/tag/michael-futrell/).
Atif Qarni: Reported to open a candidate account by VPAP with no money in it.
Rumored or declared Republican candidates
Ian Lovejoy: Reported to open a candidate account by VPAP with no money in it. Rumored to no longer be interested in running.
Hal Parrish: Longtime moderate fixture in PWC politics is rumored to give it a run.
Tom Gordy: 2011 Republican nominee in this district came closer to Colgan than anyone suspected, losing 55-45. Rumored to be interested in another run.
While historically a GOP-leaning district, the 2011 redistricting and Prince William’s ongoing realignment mean that this district should be in safe Democrat hands. It would take a combination of favorable environment, bad Democrat candidate, good Republican candidate, and lots of money to flip this seat. Rating: Safe Dem
Next up: the 17th.