Better Know a (State Senate) District: the 7th

7th State Senate District

2014: Gillespie 50%/Warner 47%/Sarvis 3%

2013: Cuccinelli 47% / McAuliffe 46% / Sarvis 6%

2012: Romney 49% / Obama 49% / Johnson 1%

2012: Allen 48% / Kaine 52%

VV calculation: R+1; Tossup district with R lean in non-presidential years

The 2011 redistricting changed this district dramatically, from a 63% McDonnell district to one that is evenly split. Cuccinelli barely won it in 2013; Gillespie won it close in 2014. As before, the district is Virginia Beach-based, with some Dem-leaning precincts in Norfolk thrown in. This is a tossup district with tons of military voters.

Unit makeup

Virginia Beach City           96.30%

Norfolk City                          3.70%

This district is almost entirely in Virginia Beach City.

Candidates

Incumbent: Republican Frank Wagner is running for re-election. He has raised over $367,000 per the last VPAP filing.

Rumored or declared candidates

There are no declared candidates, either Democrats or other Republicans at this time.

However, the Hampton Roads TEA Party has promised to primary Frank Wagner over his role in the slating in the 2014 party elections in Virginia Beach. At that time, Wagner was running for 2nd District Republican Chairman, and elected to attempt to exclude hundreds of Virginia Beach Republicans from voting to stack the 2nd District Convention (since Virginia Beach is the majority of the district, if he gets all its Convention votes, he would win). This attempt was overruled in a series of party organization meetings (http://thebullelephant.com/rpv-appeals-committee-rules-sen-frank-wagner-slating-virginia-beach/), but bad feelings among Republican conservatives abound- and they are looking to hold Wagner to account for trying to exclude them. So this one is one to keep an eye on.

Analysis

While the lean of this district looks like a tossup or a bellweather, Wagner would appear to look strong based on fundraising and a current lack of opposition. Wagner did win 96% in running unopposed in 2011. The Democrat bench in the area is weak. But Wagner unnecessarily antagonized the conservative wing of his own party, and is likely to get a strong challenge- and in fact, this strongest opposition may come from a primary challenger.

Rating: Safe Republican


One thought on “Better Know a (State Senate) District: the 7th

Comments are closed.