If Facebook Decided Elections…

This is an entirely unscientific piece examining the question – what if Facebook popularity would decide the elections? To do this entirely unscientific study, we will be taking a look at the Howell v. Stimpson fight and the 11th and 12th Senate District Races as what seem to be the most important and undecided races based on nothing by my personal opinion.

The formula used to determine the winner will be the total number of likes the political page has received divided by four plus the total of all the likes on the ten most recent Facebook posts that are at least 24 hours old (according to my personal browser at the time I happened to look at each candidate). The assuredly flawed reasoning behind this arbitrary measure is that total number of likes can factor in many people who like a candidate just to watch the page as well as people who supported the candidate long ago but no longer do.

Howell v. Stimpson:  Stimpson defeats Howell 1849 to 1795!

The story line here would be Bill Howell’s long record of success doesn’t survive the excitement of the Stimpson Candidacy, with his significant lead in number of total likes falling prey to several of her highly popular posts.

Bill Howell – 5,040 likes.

Recent posts (at least 24 hours old) : 55, 66, 124, 66, 139, 9, 58, 18, 106, 25

(1260+55+66+124+66+139+9+58+18=1795)

Susan Stimpson – 3,711 likes

Recent Posts (at least 24 hours old) : 196, 75, 53, 57, 17, 74, 79, 43, 131, 196

(928+196+75+53+57+17+74+79+43+131+196=1849)

Senate 12: Siobhan Dunnavant with Resounding Victory! Bill Janis takes 3rd behind Vince Haley!

The story line here is one of dominance.  Dunnavant simply dominates the others in all aspects of Facebook likeatude.

Vince Haley – 1,343 likes.

Recent Posts (at least 24 hours old) : 65, 36, 92, 17, 25, 19, 13, 33, 9, 12

(336+65+36+92+17+25+25+19+13+33+9+12=682)

Bill Janis – 939 likes.

Recent Posts (at least 24 hours old) : 88, 64, 8, 68, 19, 74, 30, 117, 20, 68

(235+88+64+8+68+13+74+30+117+20+68=785)

Siobhan Dunnavant – 2426 likes.

Recent Posts (at least 24 hours old) : 53, 53, 57, 42, 375, 73, 97, 199, 53, 291

(607+53+53+57+42+375+73+97+199+53+291=1900)

Edward Whitlock – 286 likes.

Recent Posts (at least 24 hours old) : 13, 13, 8, 32, 19, 10, 33, 91, 5, 13

(72+13+13+8+32+19+10+33+91+5+13=309)

Senate 11: Steve Martin Squeaks by with Plurality Win: Martin 40% to Chase 32% to Moore 27%.

This story line here is that Martin would be going down in flames if Barry Moore hadn’t jumped in the race and stolen enough opposition votes from Amanda Chase. Chase would win the race of recent posts 371 to 350 over Martin (281 for Moore), but his total number of likes was enough to overcome her popular posts.

Steve Martin – 1,811 likes.

Recent Posts (at least 24 hours old) : 29, 18, 51, 62, 63, 24, 20, 38, 15, 30

(452+29+18+51+62+63+24+20+38+15+30=802)

Amanda Chase – 1,038 likes.

Recent Posts (at least 24 hours old) : 39, 39, 18, 40, 57, 28, 8, 56, 26, 60

(260+39+39+18+40+57+28+8+56+26+60=631)

Barry Moore – 1029 likes.

Recent Posts (at least 24 hours old) : 21, 52, 6, 86, 2, 19, 24, 28, 19, 24

(257+21+52+6+86+2+19+24+28+19+24=538)


6 thoughts on “If Facebook Decided Elections…

  1. What in the formula accounts for sponsored posts? Numerous campaigns have been putting in a fair bit of money into that front. Sponsored posts get more engagement than organic posts, thereby potentially skewing the numbers.

  2. For the record, I am not asserting that these predictions are remotely accurate. I merely wanted to examine how Facebook might corrolate to election results as a fun experiment heading into election day tomorrow.

  3. Looks like Facebook was spot-on in the VA 12th Senate:

    Dunnavant: 38.31%
    Janis: 30.20%
    Haley: 22.04%
    Whitlock: 9.45%

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